Inaugural 2008 posting: Brewers defense looks vastly improved

If you followed this Brewer blog last year, I argued until I was blue in the face that the Brewers' "pitching" problems were actually defensive problems. The Brewers defense was awful everywhere and, in my opinion, it ruined a decent Brewer pitching staff.

I thought that conclusion was self-evident. After all, as I argued last season, in order to conclude otherwise, you had to believe that all of a sudden -- and en masse -- the entire pitching staff went rotten. Absent a conspiracy, that made NO SENSE.

That said, I never really sensed anyone bought into my argument. The skepticism was understandable. We are taught to believe basehits are, primarily, a reflection of the quality of the pitches thrown. I certainly used to believe that. Part of me stubbornly refuses to stop believing it. But, generally speaking, its simply not so.

Sure, pitchers can prevent balls from being hit into play (through strikeouts), and, to some extent I guess, pitchers can shorten the odds of balls in play becoming hits... principally by limiting the number of "line drives" they surrender. But otherwise, pitchers are at the mercy of their defense when it comes to whether balls struck in play become basehits.

So, since most pitchers allow a mix of batted balls that are generally in line with the Major League average (44% groundballs, 21% line drives, 35% fly balls), most pitchers can expect an average Major League defense to convert about 69% of all non-home run batted balls into outs.

The key word in that last paragraph is "average". An "average" Major League defense. Of course, the 2007 Brewers did not have an average defense. Far from it.

And that, in my opinion, was the phantom menace that derailed Milwaukee's postseason hopes. (After a while the pitching did deteriorate, but the initial crisis was brought on and sustained by poor defense).

Problem solved?

Brewers GM Doug Melvin offseason moves seemed to suggest he independently came to the same conclusion. For rather than overhauling the pitching staff, he, quite sensibly in my mind, decided to overhaul the defense.

First he acquired CF Mike Cameron. Then he moved Bill Hall from centerfield (where he was great at the spectacular play and awful at the routine play) to 3rd base. That was the key move, because it got Ryan Braun out of the infield, where he was unspeakably awful. Most fans kind of understood that Braun was a bad fielder, but I don't think most ever really grasped the extent of the damage Braun was doing at the hot corner.

That's because fans only recognize errors. In fact, errors aren't nearly as damaging as "balls not played". Those are hard to recognize, but they kill you nonetheless.

Ryan Braun's combination of errors and balls not played... in concert, of course, with poor play from other defenders... in my opinion sabotaged the Brewers pitching staff. Braun was so bad, I estimated he cost the team as many runs as he created. And he had one of the great rookie offensive seasons in history.

Hall, Brewers... brilliant so far

So far the moves are paying off handsomely. Its early, obviously, but the Brewers actually have an above average defense. And notice how much better the pitchers seem? (Bush killed himself against the Cubs... so did Gagne... otherwise the staff looks great).

Click here for the happy defensive numbers

If you look closer, the heroes thus far have unquestionably been Billy Hall, who has played a brilliant 3rd base, converting 10 of 12 (or 14) into outs. A much different situation than we had last year.

Also, centerfield has been brilliantly manned by young Tony Gwynn and Gabe "Welcome Back" Kapler.

I have to also mention the superb play thus far from Rickie Weeks at 2nd base. At one time in his career he was a real adventure. Maybe not anymore.

Xanadu Braun (defense played on rollerskates)

Um, I'm not going to say that Ryan Braun is playing poorly in left. Statistically, he's alright. But I wouldn't call him Carl Yastremski either. He really botched an easy looper from Fukudome in the Brewers only loss (a play that seemed to rattle pitcher Dave Bush), and he's only converted 6 of the 14 balls hit to him into outs. Of course, all of the basehits in his zone have been classified as "line drives", so technically he's only failed to convert 0.5 balls into outs, but nevertheless. I'm still suspicious. Its kind of like the kid who's always getting in trouble. Even when he has a legitimate excuse for his actions, you're still kind of skeptical. That's my feeling with Braun. He still looks a bit shaky out there... and at least one of the balls (Fukudome's) was not really a "line drive", it was more of a lollipop or hump backer, and most certainly should have been caught.